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GE

Genie Energy Ltd. (GNE)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Revenue beat, EPS miss: Q3 revenue rose 23.6% YoY to $138.3M, above S&P Global consensus of $130.8M*, but diluted EPS of $0.26 missed the $0.56* consensus as retail energy margins compressed on higher commodity costs and weather; management reiterated FY25 Adjusted EBITDA at the low end of $40–$50M .
  • Margin headwinds persisted: Gross margin fell to 21.7% (from 33.9%) and GRE gross margin to 20.8% as electricity and gas input costs outpaced hedge protection; gas margins turned negative due to mark-to-market on winter gas positions .
  • Strategic execution: Electricity RCEs grew 5.4% YoY to ~318k; Lansing community solar is “days away” from going live for Q4 revenue; Diversegy revenue +35% YoY with potential $5–$6M 2026 bottom-line contribution .
  • Shareholder returns supported by balance sheet: $206.6M in cash, restricted cash and marketable securities; 124k shares repurchased for $2.0M; $0.075 dividend declared (record date Nov 10) .

Note: S&P Global estimates marked with * (values retrieved from S&P Global).

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • “Another quarter of double-digit topline growth” with record Q3 revenue; GRE electricity RCEs up 5.4% YoY to ~318k; total RCEs up 4.2% YoY to 396k .
    • Renewables milestones: Lansing community solar “days away” from turn-on for Q4 revenue; Perry, NY build-out progressed; Diversegy continued “impressive” growth .
    • Balance sheet strength and capital returns: $206.6M in cash/restricted cash/marketable securities; 124k shares repurchased; $0.075 dividend maintained .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Margin compression: Gross margin fell to 21.7% (from 33.9%); GRE gross margin to 20.8% (from 33.8%); Adjusted EBITDA declined 39.5% YoY to $8.2M .
    • Commodity and weather headwinds: Cost per kWh up ~20%; gas cost per therm up 137% YoY with negative gas margins, and mark-to-market impacts on winter gas position .
    • Municipal aggregation drag: A 12‑month, lower‑margin aggregation deal (expires Q4) and unseasonably hot weather amplified margin pressure .

Financial Results

Performance vs prior year and prior quarter (actuals)

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$111.9 $105.3 $138.3
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$37.9 $23.5 $30.0
Gross Margin (%)33.9% 22.3% 21.7%
Income from Operations ($USD Millions)$11.7 $2.0 $6.9
Operating Margin (%)10.4% 1.9% 5.0%
Net Income Attrib. to GNE ($USD Millions)$10.2 $2.8 $6.7
Diluted EPS ($)$0.38 $0.11 $0.26
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions, non-GAAP)$13.6 $3.0 $8.2

Actuals vs S&P Global consensus (Q3 2025)

MetricConsensus*ActualSurprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)$130.8*$138.3 +$7.5M, +5.7% (Beat)
Diluted EPS ($)$0.56*$0.26 -$0.30 (Miss)

Note: S&P Global estimates marked with * (values retrieved from S&P Global). One estimate for each metric (coverage = 1)*.

Segment detail

SegmentQ3 2024Q3 2025
GRE Revenue ($M)$105.8 $132.4
- Electricity ($M)$100.7 $126.6
- Natural Gas ($M)$5.1 $5.8
GRE Gross Margin (%)33.8% 20.8%
GRE Income from Ops ($M)$15.0 $10.2
GRE Adjusted EBITDA ($M, non-GAAP)$15.5 $10.5
GREW Revenue ($M)$6.1 $6.0
GREW Gross Margin (%)34.9% 41.3%
GREW Income from Ops ($M)-$0.2 -$0.3

KPIs (GRE)

KPIQ3 2024Q3 2025
RCEs (000s)380 396
- Electricity (000s)302 318
- Natural Gas (000s)79 78
Meters (000s)399 402
- Electricity (000s)311 316
- Natural Gas (000s)87 86
Gross Meter Adds (000s)104 47
Churn (%)5.6% 5.1%

Balance sheet and cash flow notes: Cash/restricted cash/marketable securities $206.6M; total assets $394.1M; liabilities $205.3M; working capital $113.3M; debt $8.8M; operating cash flow YTD $28.1M (continuing ops) .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EBITDA (Consolidated)FY 2025$40–$50M (confirmed Q1 & Q2) Expect to achieve range at the low end Narrowed toward low end
GRE Margin EnvironmentQ4 2025 into 2026Q2: “Expect margins to return closer to historical levels” (normalized commodity) “Gradually become more favorable in Q4 and into 2026” Maintained/improving (qualitative)
DividendOngoing$0.075 quarterly (maintained) $0.075 declared; record Nov 10, pay ~Nov 19 Maintained
Capital Returns2025Ongoing buybacks/dividends 124k shares repurchased in Q3 for $2.0M Continued

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025, Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Retail margins & hedgingQ1: Margins in sustainable, normalized range ; Q2: Margin compression on higher wholesale prices; hedge at high %; weather impact; expect normalization Margin pressure persisted; cost/kWh +20%; gas cost/therm +137%; gas margins negative; expect improvement in Q4 and into 2026 Stabilization expected; near-term pressured
Customer growth (meters/RCEs)Q1: ~413k meters, 402k RCEs; churn 5.5% Q3: 402k meters; 396k RCEs; churn 5.1% Stable to modest down vs Q1/Q2; improved churn
Municipal aggregationNoted lower margin impact in Q1 12‑month low-margin deal expiring Q4, weighed on Q3 margins Headwind rolls off after Q4
Solar pipeline (policy)Q1: Lansing on track; GREW pivot from commercial Lansing “days away”; Perry progress; paused new project dev; removed early-stage projects amid accelerated ITC phaseout Focus on near-term assets; cautious new dev
Diversegy (brokerage)Q1: record quarter; positive EBITDA Revenue +35% YoY; potential $5–$6M 2026 contribution Strengthening contributor
Captive insuranceQ2 Q&A: conservative cash; early-stage distribution of health insurance products Non-GAAP reconciliations reference captive insurance liability adjustments Operational but not a major driver

Management Commentary

  • CEO Michael Stein: “Genie Energy achieved another quarter of double-digit topline growth to attain record third quarter revenue... However, the challenging market conditions that impacted GRE's second quarter results persisted and again weighed on our bottom-line.”
  • On retail mix and aggregation: “The financial impact... has been somewhat amplified by the increasing percentage of fixed-price contracts... most notably the large municipal aggregation deal that expires during Q4.”
  • On outlook: “We expect that GRE’s margin environment will gradually become more favorable in the fourth quarter and into 2026… we expect to achieve our annual guidance range of $40 million to $50 million in Adjusted EBITDA, albeit at the low end of the range.”
  • CFO Avi Goldin on costs: “Our cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour increased 20%... Our cost per therm of gas increased even more steeply, up 137% year-over-year, and gross margins on gas sales turned negative… gas costs in the quarter were negatively impacted by a mark-to-market on the gas position related to our winter supply.”

Q&A Highlights

  • There were no analyst questions on the Q3 call; management concluded after prepared remarks .
  • Management reiterated low-end FY25 Adjusted EBITDA outlook and expected Q4 margin improvement within prepared remarks .

Estimates Context

  • Revenue beat and EPS miss versus S&P Global: Revenue $138.3M vs $130.8M* (beat); Diluted EPS $0.26 vs $0.56* (miss). Coverage is thin with one estimate per metric* .
  • Implication: Consensus EPS likely to be revised lower on margin commentary and Q3 miss; revenue expectations may drift higher given RCE growth and consumption drivers, but margin normalization timing remains the key swing factor .

Note: S&P Global estimates marked with * (values retrieved from S&P Global).

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Top-line resilient, but profitability lever is margin normalization: GRE margin recovery in Q4 and 2026 is the central catalyst; watch expiration of the low‑margin aggregation deal in Q4 and commodity trends .
  • Q3 demonstrated operating leverage remains constrained under elevated input costs; electricity and gas cost inflation and weather sensitivity overwhelmed hedge protection in the quarter .
  • Balance sheet optionality intact: $206.6M in liquidity and modest debt ($8.8M) support continued buybacks/dividends and selective renewables investments .
  • Renewables focus near term on operational assets (Lansing/Perry) and brokerage (Diversegy) while early-stage solar development is paused pending policy clarity on ITC; Diversegy could be a growing profit center into 2026 .
  • Estimate dispersion risk is high given limited sell-side coverage (n=1); EPS trajectory hinges on commodity normalization rather than volume growth, suggesting cautious positioning until margin signs inflect* .
  • Near-term setup: Potential positive surprise if Q4 margins improve as guided; conversely, continued commodity volatility or prolonged negative gas margins would pressure EPS and cash conversion .

Additional Data and Notes

  • Non-GAAP metrics and reconciliations available in the 8-K/press release; Adjusted EBITDA and non-GAAP EPS primarily adjust for captive insurance liability and non-cash items .
  • Shareholder returns: 124k shares repurchased for $2.0M in Q3; $0.075 dividend to be paid ~Nov 19 (record date Nov 10) .
  • Cash, restricted cash and marketable securities totaled $206.6M; working capital $113.3M as of September 30, 2025 .