GE
Genie Energy Ltd. (GNE)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Revenue beat, EPS miss: Q3 revenue rose 23.6% YoY to $138.3M, above S&P Global consensus of $130.8M*, but diluted EPS of $0.26 missed the $0.56* consensus as retail energy margins compressed on higher commodity costs and weather; management reiterated FY25 Adjusted EBITDA at the low end of $40–$50M .
- Margin headwinds persisted: Gross margin fell to 21.7% (from 33.9%) and GRE gross margin to 20.8% as electricity and gas input costs outpaced hedge protection; gas margins turned negative due to mark-to-market on winter gas positions .
- Strategic execution: Electricity RCEs grew 5.4% YoY to ~318k; Lansing community solar is “days away” from going live for Q4 revenue; Diversegy revenue +35% YoY with potential $5–$6M 2026 bottom-line contribution .
- Shareholder returns supported by balance sheet: $206.6M in cash, restricted cash and marketable securities; 124k shares repurchased for $2.0M; $0.075 dividend declared (record date Nov 10) .
Note: S&P Global estimates marked with * (values retrieved from S&P Global).
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- “Another quarter of double-digit topline growth” with record Q3 revenue; GRE electricity RCEs up 5.4% YoY to ~318k; total RCEs up 4.2% YoY to 396k .
- Renewables milestones: Lansing community solar “days away” from turn-on for Q4 revenue; Perry, NY build-out progressed; Diversegy continued “impressive” growth .
- Balance sheet strength and capital returns: $206.6M in cash/restricted cash/marketable securities; 124k shares repurchased; $0.075 dividend maintained .
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What Went Wrong
- Margin compression: Gross margin fell to 21.7% (from 33.9%); GRE gross margin to 20.8% (from 33.8%); Adjusted EBITDA declined 39.5% YoY to $8.2M .
- Commodity and weather headwinds: Cost per kWh up ~20%; gas cost per therm up 137% YoY with negative gas margins, and mark-to-market impacts on winter gas position .
- Municipal aggregation drag: A 12‑month, lower‑margin aggregation deal (expires Q4) and unseasonably hot weather amplified margin pressure .
Financial Results
Performance vs prior year and prior quarter (actuals)
Actuals vs S&P Global consensus (Q3 2025)
Note: S&P Global estimates marked with * (values retrieved from S&P Global). One estimate for each metric (coverage = 1)*.
Segment detail
KPIs (GRE)
Balance sheet and cash flow notes: Cash/restricted cash/marketable securities $206.6M; total assets $394.1M; liabilities $205.3M; working capital $113.3M; debt $8.8M; operating cash flow YTD $28.1M (continuing ops) .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO Michael Stein: “Genie Energy achieved another quarter of double-digit topline growth to attain record third quarter revenue... However, the challenging market conditions that impacted GRE's second quarter results persisted and again weighed on our bottom-line.”
- On retail mix and aggregation: “The financial impact... has been somewhat amplified by the increasing percentage of fixed-price contracts... most notably the large municipal aggregation deal that expires during Q4.”
- On outlook: “We expect that GRE’s margin environment will gradually become more favorable in the fourth quarter and into 2026… we expect to achieve our annual guidance range of $40 million to $50 million in Adjusted EBITDA, albeit at the low end of the range.”
- CFO Avi Goldin on costs: “Our cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour increased 20%... Our cost per therm of gas increased even more steeply, up 137% year-over-year, and gross margins on gas sales turned negative… gas costs in the quarter were negatively impacted by a mark-to-market on the gas position related to our winter supply.”
Q&A Highlights
- There were no analyst questions on the Q3 call; management concluded after prepared remarks .
- Management reiterated low-end FY25 Adjusted EBITDA outlook and expected Q4 margin improvement within prepared remarks .
Estimates Context
- Revenue beat and EPS miss versus S&P Global: Revenue $138.3M vs $130.8M* (beat); Diluted EPS $0.26 vs $0.56* (miss). Coverage is thin with one estimate per metric* .
- Implication: Consensus EPS likely to be revised lower on margin commentary and Q3 miss; revenue expectations may drift higher given RCE growth and consumption drivers, but margin normalization timing remains the key swing factor .
Note: S&P Global estimates marked with * (values retrieved from S&P Global).
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Top-line resilient, but profitability lever is margin normalization: GRE margin recovery in Q4 and 2026 is the central catalyst; watch expiration of the low‑margin aggregation deal in Q4 and commodity trends .
- Q3 demonstrated operating leverage remains constrained under elevated input costs; electricity and gas cost inflation and weather sensitivity overwhelmed hedge protection in the quarter .
- Balance sheet optionality intact: $206.6M in liquidity and modest debt ($8.8M) support continued buybacks/dividends and selective renewables investments .
- Renewables focus near term on operational assets (Lansing/Perry) and brokerage (Diversegy) while early-stage solar development is paused pending policy clarity on ITC; Diversegy could be a growing profit center into 2026 .
- Estimate dispersion risk is high given limited sell-side coverage (n=1); EPS trajectory hinges on commodity normalization rather than volume growth, suggesting cautious positioning until margin signs inflect* .
- Near-term setup: Potential positive surprise if Q4 margins improve as guided; conversely, continued commodity volatility or prolonged negative gas margins would pressure EPS and cash conversion .
Additional Data and Notes
- Non-GAAP metrics and reconciliations available in the 8-K/press release; Adjusted EBITDA and non-GAAP EPS primarily adjust for captive insurance liability and non-cash items .
- Shareholder returns: 124k shares repurchased for $2.0M in Q3; $0.075 dividend to be paid ~Nov 19 (record date Nov 10) .
- Cash, restricted cash and marketable securities totaled $206.6M; working capital $113.3M as of September 30, 2025 .